Export Market Expansion, Labor-Market Power, and Labor Shares: Evidence from a Small Open Economy (with Devashish Mitra and Hoang Pham), Journal of Development Economics, May 2026.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of an export market expansion created by the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) on competition among manufacturing firms in Vietnam’s local labor markets. Using a nonparametric production function approach, we measure distortionary wedges between equilibrium marginal revenue products of labor (MRPL) and wages. We find that the median manufacturing firm pays workers 59% of their MRPL. Following the BTA, which significantly reduced US import tariffs for Vietnamese products, firms in industries exposed more to the tariff reductions saw faster employment growth and faster declines in their MRPL-wage wedge. We find that the BTA permanently decreases labor market distortion in manufacturing by 3.4%, and the effect concentrates on domestic private firms with a magnitude of 4.9%. We exploit information on the gender composition to estimate the MRPL-wage wedges separately for men and women. We find that the median distortion is 26% higher for women relative to men, and the decline in distortion for women, amounting to more than 12%, is the driver of the overall reduction in labor market distortion attributable to the BTA. Our theory and empirics suggest that the entry of FDI firms combined with differential aggregate labor supply elasticities explains these results.
Trade Wars and Rumors of Trade Wars: The Dynamic Effects of the U.S.-China Tariff Hikes (with Carter Mix), Journal of International Economics, Volume 160, March 2026
Abstract: We use a general equilibrium dynamic trade model to study the effects of the U.S.-China tariff hikes on the global economy. Our model captures key trade patterns since the tariff hikes, such as the pace of the decline in U.S.-China bilateral trade and the reallocation of global imports from the U.S. toward China. The welfare losses from the tariff hikes are much larger in our dynamic model than implied by static trade models. Expectations about the persistence of the tariff hikes shape aggregate dynamics in the short to medium run.
Consistency of Poisson Fixed Effects with Multiplicative Errors and Unbalanced Panel (with Jeffrey Wooldridge), Economics Letters, Volume 234, January 2024
Abstract: We study the asymptotic properties of the popular fixed effects Poisson (FEP) estimator in two scenarios important for empirical research. First, we allow for multiplicative measurement error and characterize when the FEP estimator consistently estimates the parameters. Second, we allow for unbalanced panels and characterize when the estimator is consistent under the complete cases. We propose simple tests to determine whether selection is systematically related to unobserved time-varying shocks, which can cause the FEP estimator to be inconsistent. A simulation shows that the predictions of the theoretical findings hold in reasonable sample sizes.
The Dynamics of Global Sourcing (Conditionally accepted at American Economic Journal: Microeconomics)
International Finance Discussion Papers #1337
27th FREIT-EIIT Best Graduate Student Paper
Econometric Society Winter School Best Paper in Applied Economics 2020
Finalist for the 2023 Distinguished CESifo Affiliate Award
Finalist for the WTO Essay Award for Young Economists 2020
Abstract: This paper studies a model of heterogeneous importers that incorporates static cross-country interdependence and dynamic dependence in firm-level decisions. Using data on Chinese importers between 2000-2006, I find that source countries are complementary, i.e., the benefit of importing from one country increases as a firm imports from more countries. Accounting for this complementarity, I estimate the sunk costs of importing, which make establishing relationships with new suppliers costlier than maintaining existing ones. I illustrate how the sunk cost estimates depend on cross-country interdependence and model specifications, such as the inclusion of export decisions.
Anticipation Effect of the TPP on Vietnamese Manufacturing Firms
Abstract: Using a firm-level dataset between 2010 and 2017, I study whether Vietnamese firms adjusted their productivity in anticipation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). I find that an expected reduction of 10 percentage points in export tariffs leads to a 4% increase in productivity in 2016, the year that the TPP was signed and highly anticipated. However, an expected reduction of 10 percentage points in import tariffs causes a 3% decrease in productivity. The results are consistent with the notion that improved access to export markets and future export revenues encourage productivity-enhancing activities, while increased foreign competition, which lowers future revenues, discourages firms from improving productivity.
Multinational Firms' Innovation and Affiliates' Import Decisions
(with Eric Bond, Yan Ma, and Ryo Makioka)